The Great Migration: Why GTA Families Are Choosing Whitby and Ajax for Their Forever Homes
Published September 15, 2025 | Lee Colby Durham Region Real Estate Expert
Something remarkable is happening in Durham Region. Every week, I meet families making the same strategic move: leaving Toronto, Mississauga, and other GTA urban centers for the tree-lined streets of Whitby and Ajax. This isn't just a temporary pandemic-driven trend or a fleeting housing market phenomenon. This is a fundamental reshaping of where Ontario families choose to build their lives.
Ajax's population has grown to 132,550, with an annual growth rate of 1.14%, while Whitby continues its steady expansion as one of Durham's fastest-growing municipalities. But the raw numbers only tell part of the story. What's driving this great migration is a perfect storm of affordability, infrastructure investment, and quality of life that these two communities offer in ways that the inner GTA simply cannot match.
As someone who has guided hundreds of families through this transition over the past decade, I can tell you the decision to move to Whitby or Ajax isn't about compromise – it's about strategic advantage. Let me show you why.
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The Population Surge: Understanding the Numbers
Durham Region has become one of the fastest-growing areas in Ontario, and Whitby and Ajax are leading the charge. This growth isn't random – it's driven by deliberate choices from families who have done their research and decided these communities offer the best combination of value, lifestyle, and long-term potential.
Who's Making the Move?
The typical family relocating to Whitby or Ajax looks something like this:
Young Professionals and Families: Couples in their late 20s to early 40s who have been priced out of Toronto neighborhoods like Leslieville, High Park, or the Beaches. They're looking for detached homes with yards, good schools, and community safety – things that now cost $1.5M+ in Toronto but are achievable in the $800K-$1M range in Whitby and Ajax.
Multigenerational Households: Families who need space for aging parents or adult children saving for their own homes. The larger lot sizes and more spacious home designs in Durham make multigenerational living practical in ways that Toronto semis and townhomes cannot.
Remote and Hybrid Workers: The COVID-19 pandemic permanently changed where people need to live for work. Families who now commute 2-3 days per week instead of 5 are recalculating their housing priorities, and the extra 30-40 minutes each way suddenly seems worth it for double the living space at two-thirds the cost.
GTA Newcomers: International immigrants and interprovincial migrants who research Canadian communities carefully are increasingly bypassing Toronto proper and choosing Durham communities as their first Canadian home, attracted by the combination of suburban amenities and relative affordability.
Infrastructure Investment: Building for the Future
What separates smart growth communities from suburban sprawl is infrastructure investment. Both Whitby and Ajax are benefiting from massive transportation and community infrastructure projects that are fundamentally improving connectivity and quality of life.
GO Transit: The Game-Changing Connection
The GO Expansion program, a 10-year regional express rail plan costing $13.5 billion, will require 150 kilometres of new track, including new bridges and tunnels, with expanded services and electrification projected to roll out in phases between 2025 and 2030.
For Whitby and Ajax residents, this means:
Increased Service Frequency: Plans for all-day, two-way GO service will transform GO from a commuter-only option to a genuine rapid transit system. Instead of planning your entire day around train schedules, you'll have the flexibility to travel when it suits you.
Faster Travel Times: Electrification and infrastructure improvements will reduce travel times to Union Station, making downtown Toronto more accessible than ever from Durham Region stations.
Weekend and Off-Peak Service: The expansion recognizes that modern work and lifestyle patterns don't follow traditional 9-to-5 schedules. Enhanced weekend service makes downtown entertainment, cultural events, and social activities easily accessible without car ownership.
The Durham-Scarborough Bus Rapid Transit
Construction has started on the Durham-Scarborough Bus Rapid Transit system along Kingston Road in Ajax. The project spans approximately 36 kilometres through Oshawa, Whitby, Ajax, Pickering and Toronto, and when completed, will provide two-way transit service every five minutes.
This isn't just another bus route – this is rapid transit infrastructure that will:
- Provide dedicated transit lanes ensuring reliable, fast service regardless of traffic conditions
- Connect Durham Region communities directly to Scarborough and eastern Toronto
- Include accessibility improvements, cycling infrastructure, and enhanced pedestrian facilities
- Support transit-oriented development around stations, increasing community walkability
Transit-Oriented Development
The Ajax GO Station Area serves as a Protected Major Transit Station Area (PMTSA), playing an important role in accommodating future growth and intensification in the Town of Ajax.
This planning designation means:
Mixed-Use Development: New residential, commercial, and office developments within walking distance of GO stations will create complete communities where you can live, work, and play without lengthy commutes.
Property Value Protection: Transit-oriented development is proven to support and enhance property values. Homes near GO stations consistently outperform regional averages in appreciation.
Lifestyle Convenience: Imagine walking to the GO station, grabbing your morning coffee, and being on the train in 10 minutes. That's the vision being built in both Ajax and Whitby.
The Price Advantage: Real Numbers, Real Value
Let's talk about what everyone thinks about but many agents avoid discussing honestly: the money. The price differential between Whitby/Ajax and inner GTA communities isn't just significant – it's life-changing.
Current Market Snapshot
Whitby: Current MLS® stats indicate an average house price of $933,270 with median days on market of 25 days
Ajax: Average home prices sit around $967,000 across all property types, with detached homes in desirable family neighborhoods ranging from $900K to $1.2M
Toronto (for comparison): The average home price in Toronto proper exceeds $1.1M, but family-appropriate detached homes in desirable neighborhoods regularly command $1.5M-$2.5M+
Mississauga: Similar family homes range from $1.3M-$1.8M in established neighborhoods
What Your Dollar Buys
Let's make this concrete with real-world comparisons:
$1,000,000 in Toronto (Leslieville/High Park area):
- 2-bedroom, 1,400 sq ft semi-detached home
- Small backyard (if any)
- Street parking or single garage
- Older home requiring updates
- Walk score of 80+ but car often still necessary
$1,000,000 in Whitby or Ajax:
- 3-4 bedroom, 2,200-2,500 sq ft detached home
- Proper backyard for kids/pets/entertaining
- Double car garage
- Modern construction (post-2000) with updated systems
- Family-friendly neighborhood with parks and trails
- Strong school districts
The difference isn't subtle. For the same monthly payment that gets you a cramped semi in Toronto, you can have a proper family home with space, privacy, and modern amenities in Durham Region.
The Property Tax Advantage
Beyond purchase price, ongoing costs matter enormously:
Annual Property Taxes (approximate on $1M property):
- Toronto: $7,000-$8,000
- Mississauga: $8,000-$9,000
- Whitby: $5,500-$6,500
- Ajax: $5,800-$6,800
That $2,000+ annual difference compounds significantly over a 25-year mortgage period – adding up to $50,000+ in savings that can be invested in your family's education, retirement, or home improvements.
Insurance and Utility Considerations
Newer construction in Whitby and Ajax often means:
- Lower home insurance premiums due to modern building codes and systems
- Better energy efficiency reducing heating and cooling costs
- Fewer immediate maintenance and repair expenses
- Modern electrical, plumbing, and HVAC systems with warranties
Quality of Life: The Intangibles That Matter Most
Numbers tell part of the story, but the real reason families stay in Whitby and Ajax is the lifestyle these communities provide.
Whitby: Heritage Meets Modern Living
Whitby has mastered the difficult balance of honoring its heritage while embracing growth and modernization.
Downtown Whitby: The historic downtown along Brock Street offers that small-town Main Street feel with locally-owned cafes, restaurants, and shops. The weekly farmers' market, community festivals, and holiday celebrations create genuine community connection that suburban plazas can't replicate.
Waterfront Access: The Whitby waterfront along Lake Ontario provides beaches, trails, and parks that rival anything Toronto's waterfront offers – without the crowds. The recently enhanced Heydenshore Pavilion and surrounding park spaces provide year-round recreational opportunities.
Brooklin Neighborhood: This historic village within Whitby offers its own distinct character, with heritage architecture, local businesses, and strong community identity. Families seeking small-town atmosphere within a larger municipality gravitate here.
Port Whitby: The developing Port Whitby area represents Whitby's future – master-planned waterfront communities with modern architecture, marina access, and integrated retail and dining.
Ajax: The Rising Star
Ajax has embraced its role as one of the GTA's fastest-growing communities, investing heavily in amenities and infrastructure.
Waterfront Trail: Over 10 kilometers of paved trail along Lake Ontario connects Ajax to neighboring communities, perfect for cycling, jogging, or walking. The trail system links parks, beaches, and conservation areas.
Community Recreation: Modern recreation facilities including the Ajax Community Centre and multiple arena complexes provide year-round programming for all ages. The town's investment in sports fields, playgrounds, and community spaces reflects its family-first priorities.
Cultural Diversity: Ajax has become one of Ontario's most diverse communities, with strong South Asian, Caribbean, and Middle Eastern populations creating a rich cultural tapestry reflected in restaurants, festivals, and community events.
Town Planning: Ajax's commitment to thoughtful development means new subdivisions come with schools, parks, and retail amenities planned from the start – not added as afterthoughts.
School Quality: Investing in Your Children's Future
For families with children, school quality often trumps every other consideration. Both Whitby and Ajax deliver exceptional educational opportunities.
Public School Excellence
The Durham District School Board serves both communities with:
- Modern school facilities in newer developments
- Strong academic programs and standardized test performance
- Robust special education support
- Extensive extracurricular programming
- French Immersion options in multiple schools
Catholic Education
The Durham Catholic District School Board provides:
- Faith-based education rooted in Catholic values
- Strong academic results and university preparation
- Close-knit school communities
- Character education programs
School Proximity
One of the most overlooked advantages of newer suburban development: schools are planned into communities from the beginning. In Whitby and Ajax, most new developments include:
- Elementary schools within walking distance
- Safe walking routes with sidewalks and crossing guards
- School bus service for secondary students
- After-school programs and care options
Compare this to Toronto, where families often face:
- School lottery systems and boundary uncertainties
- Overcrowded schools accepting students from multiple neighborhoods
- Lengthy waitlists for popular programs
- Significant commutes even within the same ward
Community Safety and Family Focus
Both Whitby and Ajax consistently rank among the safest communities in the GTA, with crime rates well below regional averages and strong community policing relationships.
Why Families Feel Secure Here:
Neighborhood Design: Newer developments feature cul-de-sacs, reduced through-traffic, and plenty of "eyes on the street" from front porches and windows.
Community Investment: Active community associations, neighborhood watch programs, and regular town-sponsored events create social cohesion that naturally enhances safety.
Youth Programming: Extensive recreation, sports, and cultural programs keep young people engaged and connected to their community.
Walkability: While these are car-oriented communities, newer areas include pedestrian-friendly designs with sidewalks, bike paths, and safe crossings that allow children age-appropriate independence.
The Commute Reality Check: Is It Worth It?
The elephant in the room for any GTA-to-Durham move discussion is the commute. Let's address it honestly.
Current Commute Times (to downtown Toronto):
From Whitby GO Station:
- Express service: 35-45 minutes to Union Station
- Local service: 55-65 minutes to Union Station
- Driving: 60-90 minutes depending on traffic and time of day
From Ajax GO Station:
- Express service: 30-40 minutes to Union Station
- Local service: 50-60 minutes to Union Station
- Driving: 50-80 minutes depending on traffic and time of day
The Commute Trade-Off Calculation:
Let's say you're currently living in Toronto with a 30-minute TTC commute. Moving to Whitby or Ajax adds 20-30 minutes each way if you're commuting daily by GO train.
That's approximately 1 hour per day, or 5 hours per week of additional commute time.
Now consider what you gain:
- $400,000-$600,000 in housing cost savings
- 800-1,200 sq ft of additional living space
- Private outdoor space
- Modern home systems and lower maintenance
- Better schools and safer neighborhoods
- $2,000+ annual property tax savings
For many families, especially those with hybrid work arrangements commuting 2-3 days per week instead of 5, the math is overwhelmingly favorable.
The Hybrid Work Advantage:
The permanent shift to hybrid work models has fundamentally changed this calculation. If you're only commuting 2-3 days per week:
- Weekly commute time increase: 2-3 hours (not 5 hours)
- Home office space: Much more feasible in larger Durham homes
- Quality of life on non-commute days: Dramatically better in Whitby/Ajax
- Work-life balance: Improved with larger homes, outdoor space, and community amenities
Future Development: What's Coming Next
Understanding future development helps buyers make informed long-term investment decisions.
Planned Infrastructure Projects:
Highway 407 Extension: Continued development of 407 infrastructure improves east-west connectivity and takes pressure off Highway 401, benefiting Durham commuters even if they don't use the toll route.
Regional Hospital Expansion: Healthcare infrastructure investments ensure quality medical services remain accessible as populations grow.
Community Centre Enhancements: Both municipalities have multi-year plans for enhanced recreation, cultural, and community facilities.
Residential Development Pipeline:
Whitby:
- Port Whitby waterfront development ongoing
- North Whitby master-planned communities
- Downtown intensification along Brock Street
- Transit-oriented development near GO station
Ajax:
- Continued development north of Taunton Road
- GO station area intensification
- Westney Heights expansion
- Waterfront enhancement projects
These aren't speculative developments – they're planned, approved, and in various stages of completion. Early buyers in these areas benefit from the value appreciation that comes with community maturation.
The Investment Case: Property Appreciation Potential
Beyond lifestyle, let's discuss the investment fundamentals that make Whitby and Ajax compelling for wealth building.
Historical Appreciation:
Over the past 10 years, both communities have seen consistent property value appreciation driven by:
- Strong population growth and demand
- Infrastructure investment and improvements
- Quality of life enhancements
- Limited land supply for new development
- Proximity to GTA employment centers
Future Appreciation Drivers:
Transportation Infrastructure: The $13.5 billion GO Expansion investment will fundamentally improve connectivity, historically the primary driver of suburban property values.
Employment Growth: Durham Region's economic development initiatives are attracting employers and creating local job opportunities, reducing commute dependency.
Community Maturation: As neighborhoods age and amenities develop, early buyers benefit from the "pioneer premium" – being first in areas that become increasingly desirable.
GTA Growth Pressure: Toronto's constrained geography and high prices will continue pushing buyers eastward, maintaining demand pressure in Durham markets.
Making the Move: What You Need to Know
If you're considering joining the great migration to Whitby or Ajax, here's my professional guidance:
Best Neighborhoods for Families:
Whitby:
- Brooklin: Heritage charm with modern amenities
- Port Whitby: Waterfront living with contemporary design
- Pringle Creek: Established family neighborhoods with mature trees
- Williamsburg: Newer developments with modern homes
Ajax:
- Northwest Ajax: Newer developments with schools and parks
- Central Ajax: Established neighborhoods near amenities
- Waterfront: Premium living with lake access
- Audley: Balanced mix of housing types and price points
Timing Considerations:
Current Market Conditions (September 2025): We're seeing favorable conditions for buyers with:
- Increased inventory compared to spring 2025
- Reasonable days-on-market metrics
- Motivated sellers willing to negotiate
- Less competition than peak seasons
Interest Rate Environment: While rates remain elevated compared to pandemic lows, they've stabilized at more predictable levels. Buyers who can comfortably afford current rates are positioned well, as rate reductions would provide refinancing opportunities in future years.
Common Mistakes to Avoid:
Buying Too Far from Transit: GO station proximity matters enormously for property values and lifestyle convenience. Prioritize homes within 5-10 minutes of stations.
Underestimating Commute Impact: Test your actual commute during rush hour before buying. Google Maps estimates often don't reflect real-world conditions.
Ignoring Future Development: Research planned developments near potential homes. Major projects can enhance or negatively impact your property.
Skipping Professional Guidance: Durham's micro-markets vary significantly. Work with agents who specialize in these communities and understand the nuances.
The Environmental Consideration
Modern families increasingly factor sustainability into housing decisions. Whitby and Ajax offer advantages here too:
Newer Construction: Most homes built after 2000 incorporate better insulation, energy-efficient windows, and modern HVAC systems that reduce environmental impact.
Transit Access: GO train commuting produces significantly lower per-passenger emissions than single-occupancy vehicle commuting.
Active Transportation: Both communities are investing in cycling infrastructure, walking trails, and pedestrian-friendly design that supports car-free local travel.
Community Gardens and Green Spaces: Abundant parkland and conservation areas provide access to nature and outdoor activities without lengthy travel.
Real Stories from Real Families
Over the past decade, I've helped hundreds of families make this transition. Here's what they consistently tell me:
"We should have moved sooner": Almost universally, families wish they'd made the move earlier to capture more years in their larger homes and better neighborhoods.
"The commute concerns were overblown": Most families adjust to the commute quickly, especially with hybrid work arrangements, and find the lifestyle benefits more than compensate.
"Our kids are thriving": Parents consistently report that their children are happier, more active, and more engaged in Whitby and Ajax than they were in cramped Toronto homes.
"Our financial stress decreased dramatically": Lower mortgage payments, property taxes, and cost of living reduce financial pressure and improve quality of life.
"We feel like we're part of a community": The small-town feel, friendly neighbors, and community events create social connections that many families lacked in Toronto.
The Decision Framework: Is Durham Right for You?
Consider moving to Whitby or Ajax if you:
? Value space, privacy, and modern amenities over urban density ? Are willing to commute 30-60 minutes for better lifestyle and value ? Prioritize school quality and safe neighborhoods for raising children ? Want property value appreciation potential without Toronto premiums ? Can embrace hybrid work or have flexible commuting arrangements ? Desire genuine community connection and small-town feel ? Want more home for less money and lower ongoing costs
Stay in the inner GTA if you:
? Require daily access to downtown Toronto core and can't work remotely ? Prioritize walkable urban lifestyle over suburban amenities ? Don't need significant living space or outdoor areas ? Value cultural institutions and urban entertainment over community events ? Have specific employment or family circumstances requiring Toronto proximity ? Prefer rental flexibility over homeownership commitment
Your Next Chapter Awaits
The great migration to Whitby and Ajax isn't a trend – it's a fundamental reshaping of how Ontario families choose to live. These communities offer something increasingly rare in the modern GTA: genuinely affordable family homes in safe, amenity-rich communities with excellent schools and strong appreciation potential.
The infrastructure investments happening now will make these communities even more connected and desirable in coming years. Families who buy strategically today are positioning themselves to benefit from decades of value appreciation while enjoying immediate lifestyle improvements.
As Durham Region's population continues growing and Toronto's housing prices remain elevated, the value proposition of Whitby and Ajax only strengthens. The question isn't whether these communities will continue attracting GTA families – it's whether you'll be among the families who acted early and captured the opportunity.
Ready to explore how Whitby or Ajax could be your family's perfect next chapter? As your Durham Region specialist, I provide personalized guidance about neighborhoods, schools, commute realities, and investment potential. Let's discuss your family's priorities and find the home that makes your migration story a success. Contact me today for a comprehensive consultation about forever home opportunities in Whitby and Ajax.
About the Author, Lee Colby: As a Durham Region real estate specialist with over a decade of experience, I've helped hundreds of families find their perfect home in Ajax, Pickering, Whitby, Oshawa, Port Perry, and the Kawartha Lakes. My hyper-local expertise and commitment to client success have made me a trusted advisor for families throughout our community. Let's chat! Call or text me at 905-431-0710 to learn more about our Colby Team Buyer Benefit System